Gaming itself is changing, and the ways in which this nascent industry is evolving are many. The future of gaming is multifaceted, uncertain, and even frightening.
First let us take stock of the three current spheres of gaming, PC, Console and Arcade.
Arcades are where gaming started, but are now largely relegated to gimmicks and unique control interfaces to continue functioning. The fall of the Arcade can be traced to the onset of home portable gaming. PCs were the harbinger, but it was console gaming that stole the masses away from the coin glutted cabinets of the Arcade. While Arcades maintained graphical dominance even into the fourth generation of consoles, the convenience, cheaper cost, and portability of consoles and eventually PCs as well overwhelmed the graphical edge of arcades. Shipping a new machine to arcades was more difficult than releasing a new video game to retailers. Today all Arcades can offer is a unique experience.
PCs today are relegated to a few niche genres and casual, browser-based games. PC gaming was to the Arcades as television is to movies, similar but overall an experience of lesser quality. This situation was turned on its head by the third generation of consoles, with gamers spending in excess to build PCs capable of graphics equivalent to or beyond what was affordable in arcade. This subculture of gaming riggers continues to this day, and still acts as the driving force behind hardware advances. Still, most PCs aren't built for such intense processing, and many people aren't interested in giving their children a reason to compete for time on the PC.
Consoles currently dominate the gaming industry. Consoles are the youngest sphere of gaming, created out of a desire for Arcade quality gaming at home. This feat wasn't possible on PCs back when the first Atari was released. PCs eventually were able to, but Consoles were far cheaper and matched Arcades. These factors continue to push the dominance of Consoles, even as the lines between them and PCs are blurred. Getting cheap, convenient quality is a hard bargain to pass up.
This is where we stand today. The detail is present because it gives some sense of from where and how the industry has traveled thus far. This is important in considering where gaming is going.
First, Console gaming is dying. This seems a drastic statement, but the situation is as I have stated. In two decades consoles as we know them will cease to be relevant. Consoles are already far diverged from the machines we saw in the 1980s. They are almost identical to PCs, save for their unique form factors and input devices. In a surprisingly short amount of time Consoles will be little more than prefabricated gaming PCs much like Alienware makes now. Proprietary installations will likely continue for some time, but it's only a matter of time before the homogenization of features and hardware begins to defeat the purpose of separate machines.
Second, there will obviously be a resurgence of PC gaming, though PCs as well will have changed. As consoles become more PC-like and the industry transitions back, demands will come for consistent, stable hardware on which PC gaming can be supported. All current Console makers will surreptitiously transform their consoles into gaming PCs, attempting to become the standard. Eventually one, or more likely Alienware, will emerge as the basic standard, with the others being only tangentially supported.
Third, a new sphere of gaming is fast emerging. While gameboys and the like have been around for years, only those with more than a passing interest would purchase them. Now, however, everyone has a phone or portable device capable of playing game, whether they initially intended to use it for that purpose or not. This sphere will dominate the casual market, and even introduce new genres possible only such a widely mobile and ubiquitous platform. Kids will catch Pokemon not by moving a virtual character around a virtual environment, but by walking to school, to the cafeteria, running around the yard and more.
Fourth, the future of Arcades will depend on future technology. In order to survive, Arcades need a new technology that is too expensive for home use. They might attempt to cache in on mobile gaming, acting as hot spots for events and special rewards. Failing a new technology, Arcades in the US will become an antiquity, something novel but no longer critical to the industry. They will continue to have relevance in Japan, but that will also diminish without a significant, unique hook.
Most importantly, by the time all this has come to pass a point will have been reached where additional graphical power is largely irrelevant. A difference will remain, but it will be largely unnecessary for story-experiencing purposes. Gaming will experience it's own "impressionist" movement, moving away from photo-realism and graphical superiority to more creative and interesting uses of computational power. Corporations, however, will act to squelch or ignore such titles initially as they will continue to trust in the staple genres and styles.
See you in 20 years.
Showing posts with label prognostication. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prognostication. Show all posts
20091215
20080303
Prognostication: Owari
In 6 days Brawl will be released.
This has been a long time in coming. Anticipation for this game has been ZOMG on a scale of WUT to PWN, and those of us patient enough to avoid importing the monster will soon hold the beast betwixt our palms. I personally plan on being up until past midnight in order to grab my copy.
I'm getting more excited as the day approaches, and it's hard to place my finger on why this stands out in my mind more than Halo 3, the Burning Crusade, or even the Wii did. True to form, I've done a thorough self-analysis.
Halo 3 failed to excite me in this manner for a number of reasons, they made the wrong game. The first trailer for the game belied all subsequent media, which proved its focus was more on the multiplayer than the story. While I was always a fan of taking hot lead and plasma to my buddies, the story was always a big thing for me as well. Without that Halo 3 didn't promise me much of interest beyond a shiny new coat of paint and some miscellaneous power-ups I didn't see as impressive compared with the innovations of the series' predecessors.
The Burning Crusade was unsuccessful more because of me than anything else. 90% of what I paid for would not be granted to me until nearly four months after I bought the game. Knowing that I'd only have access to so little of the game because I had stubbornly refused to level a single character to 60 dampened my enthusiasm despite how wonderfully Blizzard delivered. To date, all but one of my favorite areas is from the expansion. The next expansion, Wrath of the Lich King, will likely command far greater attention for me given the complete reversal of my position.
The Wii was robbed of all the excitement by the fact that I did my waiting before it was released. I stood in line for a preorder weeks beforehand, and so it was a brief matter to walk in, grab my box, and leave. I was excited at the time, but that excitement diminished rapidly as I waited for "the game" that would command my fullest attention. Most of my progress on the Wii has only occurred when either my internet connection has died or when I've had company.
So Brawl now commands my attention, and rightly so. It is "the game" I was hoping for, it will allow me to beat up my brother in absentia, and from the get go I'l be set to unlock it's mysteries with the same joy and excitement I did with its ancestors.
Yeah, I could be talking about how excited I am to be voting tomorrow, but I've been talking politics to death everywhere I go, and the time has come to simply hunker down, vote, and see how things turn out.
After that, we brawl.
This has been a long time in coming. Anticipation for this game has been ZOMG on a scale of WUT to PWN, and those of us patient enough to avoid importing the monster will soon hold the beast betwixt our palms. I personally plan on being up until past midnight in order to grab my copy.
I'm getting more excited as the day approaches, and it's hard to place my finger on why this stands out in my mind more than Halo 3, the Burning Crusade, or even the Wii did. True to form, I've done a thorough self-analysis.
Halo 3 failed to excite me in this manner for a number of reasons, they made the wrong game. The first trailer for the game belied all subsequent media, which proved its focus was more on the multiplayer than the story. While I was always a fan of taking hot lead and plasma to my buddies, the story was always a big thing for me as well. Without that Halo 3 didn't promise me much of interest beyond a shiny new coat of paint and some miscellaneous power-ups I didn't see as impressive compared with the innovations of the series' predecessors.
The Burning Crusade was unsuccessful more because of me than anything else. 90% of what I paid for would not be granted to me until nearly four months after I bought the game. Knowing that I'd only have access to so little of the game because I had stubbornly refused to level a single character to 60 dampened my enthusiasm despite how wonderfully Blizzard delivered. To date, all but one of my favorite areas is from the expansion. The next expansion, Wrath of the Lich King, will likely command far greater attention for me given the complete reversal of my position.
The Wii was robbed of all the excitement by the fact that I did my waiting before it was released. I stood in line for a preorder weeks beforehand, and so it was a brief matter to walk in, grab my box, and leave. I was excited at the time, but that excitement diminished rapidly as I waited for "the game" that would command my fullest attention. Most of my progress on the Wii has only occurred when either my internet connection has died or when I've had company.
So Brawl now commands my attention, and rightly so. It is "the game" I was hoping for, it will allow me to beat up my brother in absentia, and from the get go I'l be set to unlock it's mysteries with the same joy and excitement I did with its ancestors.
Yeah, I could be talking about how excited I am to be voting tomorrow, but I've been talking politics to death everywhere I go, and the time has come to simply hunker down, vote, and see how things turn out.
After that, we brawl.
20080121
Prognostication: SPOILERS AHOY
The following characters were revealed by a very unintentional leak on Nintendo's part. I will not describe the nature of the leak in this preamble, nor the characters that were revealed. Chances are, these characters were meant to be hidden, and as such will not be announced on the blog until well after Brawl comes out. If you're attempting to avoid finding out about such things, cease and desist.
That said, here is the relevant link. I'm also embedding the trailer below to fill space before I say anything.
You might have missed it, but hidden in that video were the unannounced characters. If you missed them you weren't alone, I certainly overlooked it (and apparently Nintendo did as well).
If you've read the link you'll know that the characters were Ness, Jigglypuff and Lucario (another pokemon).
So I both correctly and incorrectly predicted Ness, nailed the Puff, and am aghast at Lucario. I obviously don't pay attention to the Pokemon movies (phew). Sadly, chances are Mewtwo is out, which would be a black mark on my record.
My only major complaint is that there's over a month between the release in Japan and the release in America. As such, we'll probably know all the secret characters before we even get our hands on the game.
Accordingly, I'll cease to pay attention to any news outlets likely to reveal such facts, with the exception of the official page. That's unless the official page decides to have a blowout the day of release and crush my hopes and dreams.
That said, here is the relevant link. I'm also embedding the trailer below to fill space before I say anything.
You might have missed it, but hidden in that video were the unannounced characters. If you missed them you weren't alone, I certainly overlooked it (and apparently Nintendo did as well).
If you've read the link you'll know that the characters were Ness, Jigglypuff and Lucario (another pokemon).
So I both correctly and incorrectly predicted Ness, nailed the Puff, and am aghast at Lucario. I obviously don't pay attention to the Pokemon movies (phew). Sadly, chances are Mewtwo is out, which would be a black mark on my record.
My only major complaint is that there's over a month between the release in Japan and the release in America. As such, we'll probably know all the secret characters before we even get our hands on the game.
Accordingly, I'll cease to pay attention to any news outlets likely to reveal such facts, with the exception of the official page. That's unless the official page decides to have a blowout the day of release and crush my hopes and dreams.
20071010
Prognostication: Shock and Awe
Before I get into the meat of this, I'm going to touch on Lucas first.
Lucas is from Mother 3, putting him in the 'Maybe' category I prognosticated before. However, his description asks a question, "Is it possible he can surpass even Ness???". Ness fans are probably going to freak out, because it looks like he might have been given the boot.
For the moment, I do not believe we have enough information. Much like Ike and Marth, we need to see how similar their fighting styles are before we can make an informed opinion. If they're all too similar, I'll make a hard call then. For now, Marth and Ness are teetering on the edge of 'Maybe' themselves.
That said...
HOLY ZARQUON SINGING FISH!
Sakurai decided, apparently, to take my elegant argument about why we wouldn't be seeing Sonic is Brawl and burn it at the stake. If you just figured it out, go to the webpage NOW. I'm not kidding.
I expect that the entire internet has been going "OMGWTFBBQ" for the past 3 hours without me.
Curbing my excitement for just a moment here, we have all of 7 weeks left before go time. The current roster of fighters is at 22, out of the 40 that Sakurai was aiming for. If they succeed in that goal, which is not necessarily going to happen, then there are a few possibilities.
1) The website will keep updating after release, including introducing some of these characters.
2) These characters will be kept secret.
3) We're going to be getting bombarded with awesome for the next 7 weeks with 2 or more characters being introduced a week. Possibly weighted towards release.
In any case, just when you thought hype was going to die down about the game they pull Mario's biggest Rival out of their sleeve. Amazing.
Lucas is from Mother 3, putting him in the 'Maybe' category I prognosticated before. However, his description asks a question, "Is it possible he can surpass even Ness???". Ness fans are probably going to freak out, because it looks like he might have been given the boot.
For the moment, I do not believe we have enough information. Much like Ike and Marth, we need to see how similar their fighting styles are before we can make an informed opinion. If they're all too similar, I'll make a hard call then. For now, Marth and Ness are teetering on the edge of 'Maybe' themselves.
That said...
HOLY ZARQUON SINGING FISH!
Sakurai decided, apparently, to take my elegant argument about why we wouldn't be seeing Sonic is Brawl and burn it at the stake. If you just figured it out, go to the webpage NOW. I'm not kidding.
I expect that the entire internet has been going "OMGWTFBBQ" for the past 3 hours without me.
Curbing my excitement for just a moment here, we have all of 7 weeks left before go time. The current roster of fighters is at 22, out of the 40 that Sakurai was aiming for. If they succeed in that goal, which is not necessarily going to happen, then there are a few possibilities.
1) The website will keep updating after release, including introducing some of these characters.
2) These characters will be kept secret.
3) We're going to be getting bombarded with awesome for the next 7 weeks with 2 or more characters being introduced a week. Possibly weighted towards release.
In any case, just when you thought hype was going to die down about the game they pull Mario's biggest Rival out of their sleeve. Amazing.
20070918
Prognostication: Everest at Range
I had listed the Ice Climber's return as "Probable" and here they are. At the same time, they've been completely overshadowed by today's announcement.
Super Smash Brothers: Brawl will be playable over the internet.
I don't know about you, but I can think of several dozen people who just cackled maniacally, expounding upon dire machinations of my doom with tumultuous thunder crashing in the background.
Sakurai makes a note that should be common sense to just about everyone, things over the internet experience lag. This is probably the most honest I've ever heard a game developer when it comes to internet gaming. If you listen to comments from developers about Halo 3's online cooperative mode, or Unreal's fragfests you don't hear them saying "Well, we can't promise the same twitchfest action a LAN allows." There's no acknowledging the obvious with them, but Sakurai is humble enough to admit that his code is not some magic panacea for the ailments of the internet. There will be lag, it will suck on occasion, and a little electric rodent is going to defeat your brave swordsman handily because of it.
We'll see how this all pans out, but I would again recommend getting a Wii now even if you don't intend on using it for months. December 3rd they will be sold out, guaranteed.
Super Smash Brothers: Brawl will be playable over the internet.
I don't know about you, but I can think of several dozen people who just cackled maniacally, expounding upon dire machinations of my doom with tumultuous thunder crashing in the background.
Sakurai makes a note that should be common sense to just about everyone, things over the internet experience lag. This is probably the most honest I've ever heard a game developer when it comes to internet gaming. If you listen to comments from developers about Halo 3's online cooperative mode, or Unreal's fragfests you don't hear them saying "Well, we can't promise the same twitchfest action a LAN allows." There's no acknowledging the obvious with them, but Sakurai is humble enough to admit that his code is not some magic panacea for the ailments of the internet. There will be lag, it will suck on occasion, and a little electric rodent is going to defeat your brave swordsman handily because of it.
We'll see how this all pans out, but I would again recommend getting a Wii now even if you don't intend on using it for months. December 3rd they will be sold out, guaranteed.
20070822
Prognostication: Princesses and Monkey Business
Double the fun in this post because I didn't particularly bother before.
Peach is in. She was in the "Sure Bets" category. I don't think there's much to say here, except I hope her final smash is a giant radish.
Diddy Kong looks like he'll actually be an interesting addition. I don't expect to see anyone else from the Donkey Kong zone, and I still only expect a total of two from the "Maybe" category. This means that Toad, Black Shadow, Wolf Link/Midna, Dark Samus, some character from Mother 3 and Star Wolf are all going to have to duke it out to see who is in the game. However, I'm officially downgrading Toad to "Iffy". Peach clearly can still use him as a shield; fighting him at the same time would be awkward.
The pace for character announcements has been about what I expected on average. There was a dry spell for a while, but we've been recently hit by a slightly greater number of characters. I'm personally still waiting for Luigi, I'll never get enough of the Green Missile.
Peach is in. She was in the "Sure Bets" category. I don't think there's much to say here, except I hope her final smash is a giant radish.
Diddy Kong looks like he'll actually be an interesting addition. I don't expect to see anyone else from the Donkey Kong zone, and I still only expect a total of two from the "Maybe" category. This means that Toad, Black Shadow, Wolf Link/Midna, Dark Samus, some character from Mother 3 and Star Wolf are all going to have to duke it out to see who is in the game. However, I'm officially downgrading Toad to "Iffy". Peach clearly can still use him as a shield; fighting him at the same time would be awkward.
The pace for character announcements has been about what I expected on average. There was a dry spell for a while, but we've been recently hit by a slightly greater number of characters. I'm personally still waiting for Luigi, I'll never get enough of the Green Missile.
20070813
Prognostication: Pokeyman Championships
*poke*
I have to admit here and now, I didn't see this coming at all. I had reasoned as followed.
1) Many, many people would love to beat the ever-living crap out of Ash or a look-alike.
2) Ash or a look-alike are both completely devoid of viable combat skills.
3) Therefore, Ash and/or a look-alike are not viable as fighters, although they'd make excellent shoe-in replacements for the home run bag.
Obviously, Nintendo thought differently.
Sadly, we will not be able to beat the ever-living crap out of the trainer himself, but only his pokemon. This is fine, so long as they don't use Ash's whiny voice. I will change the voice options to Japanese without blinking if I hear that horror upon horrors again.
In any case, it looks like we're going to see a lot of very unique fighters. Ridley's chances just shot up, in my opinion.
I have to admit here and now, I didn't see this coming at all. I had reasoned as followed.
1) Many, many people would love to beat the ever-living crap out of Ash or a look-alike.
2) Ash or a look-alike are both completely devoid of viable combat skills.
3) Therefore, Ash and/or a look-alike are not viable as fighters, although they'd make excellent shoe-in replacements for the home run bag.
Obviously, Nintendo thought differently.
Sadly, we will not be able to beat the ever-living crap out of the trainer himself, but only his pokemon. This is fine, so long as they don't use Ash's whiny voice. I will change the voice options to Japanese without blinking if I hear that horror upon horrors again.
In any case, it looks like we're going to see a lot of very unique fighters. Ridley's chances just shot up, in my opinion.
20070806
Prognostication: Missing Links
What's this? Another successful prognostication by yours truly? Indeed, once again I have correctly divined the future of Super Smash Brothers Brawl's roster of fighters.
But wait! This is blasphemy, this is madness! There has been no update to the official website that details such juicy information! Madness? This is a helpful URL to information from Eiji Aonuma!
That's right, Sheik and Ganondorf will be returning. There is nothing official as to any changes, drastic or simple, to the legendary villain's moveset. However, chances are we will see him more in tune with the recent Twilight Princess interpretation.
Now I really need to beat that game.
Lastly, in honor of an excited friend and my last successful prognostication, I end with the following image.
But wait! This is blasphemy, this is madness! There has been no update to the official website that details such juicy information! Madness? This is a helpful URL to information from Eiji Aonuma!
That's right, Sheik and Ganondorf will be returning. There is nothing official as to any changes, drastic or simple, to the legendary villain's moveset. However, chances are we will see him more in tune with the recent Twilight Princess interpretation.
Now I really need to beat that game.
Lastly, in honor of an excited friend and my last successful prognostication, I end with the following image.
20070801
Prognostication: Ike
As an FYI, I'm good.
Ike was just announced as a playable character. If you'll recall, I called that just a few days ago. As an encore, I predict lots of whining from Marth and Roy players before they even know how he fights, with a mild bit of tempered commentary from people who are intelligent enough to wait and see.
Also, the lottery numbers will be 6, 32, 17, 63 and 4 with the bonus ball being 12.
Ike was just announced as a playable character. If you'll recall, I called that just a few days ago. As an encore, I predict lots of whining from Marth and Roy players before they even know how he fights, with a mild bit of tempered commentary from people who are intelligent enough to wait and see.
Also, the lottery numbers will be 6, 32, 17, 63 and 4 with the bonus ball being 12.
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